Independent UK Economic Forecasting Since 1977

Established in 1977, the ITEM Club is one of the UK’s leading forecast groups. It is the only private forecasting group to use HM Treasury’s model of the UK economy and operates independently of political or economic bias.

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Why organizations trust us

Unparalleled expertise and independence in UK economic forecasting

Established 1977

Nearly five decades providing trusted insights to decision-makers across government and industry sectors.

HM Treasury Model

Only private forecaster with access to the UK government's official economic model for unmatched accuracy.

100% Independent

Completely free from political influence. Forecasts and reports driven purely by rigorous analysis on the economic data.

Recent Reports

Explore our comprehensive library of quarterly forecasts and in-depth thematic publications

April 2026

SPRING 2026 FORECAST: ANOTHER SUPPLY SHOCK HITS

The UK jobs market has deteriorated, but the shifting nature of where new jobs will be created suggests that there might not be as much slack in the labour market as meets the eye.

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Weakened regional labour markets as energy costs bite

The energy shock is feeding through to a broad-based labour market slowdown. Employment is expected to decline across all regions and most major cities in 2026 as firms respond to weaker demand and higher costs.

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How sticky is inflation?

Mid-year economic assessment with updated forecasts for inflation, interest rates, and consumer spending patterns.

May 2026

Will the UK benefit from the AI boom?

As we move into the second half of the year, we consider how the rise of AI may influence the UK economy.

About Us: Meet Our Team

The ITEM Club brings together leading economists, forecasters, and advisers with deep expertise across macroeconomic analysis, policy evaluation, and economic modelling. Our team combines decades of experience from central banks, government departments, and financial institutions.

Chief Economic Adviser

Matt Swannell

Chief Economic Adviser to the ITEM Club

Matt brings over two decades of experience in economic forecasting and policy analysis. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, he held senior roles at the Bank of England, HM Treasury, and a leading global investment bank, where he advised on macroeconomic strategy and risk assessment.

15+ Years ExperienceEconomic forecasting & policy analysis
Government AdviserTrusted by corporate and government leaders

Economic Data Responses

Real-time analysis of key economic indicators

July 21 2026

Fiscal challenges will constrain Burnham’s policy options

UK government borrowing was slightly above the Office for Budget Responsibility’s projections in the first three months of the fiscal year, though the OBR is likely to judge the overshoot to be temporary.

July 21 2026

UK jobs market decline on hold for now

Today’s UK labour market data for May gave the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee little reason to move out of wait-and-see mode.

July 17 2026

Small pickup in UK GDP in May

UK GDP picked up modestly in May. But we think the pattern we’ve seen since the pandemic is repeating, where residual seasonality sees the economy lose momentum into Q2 after a strong Q1.

July 17 2026

July 3 2026

Momentum is fading

June’s S&P Global UK services PMI remained in contractionary territory. We expect growth to be weak over the rest of the year. Households’ real incomes are being squeezed, while financial conditions and fiscal policy remain tight.

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UK services activity ticks higher in October amid resilient demand

UK services activity expanded in October at a stronger pace than initially estimated as demand strengthened, according to a closely watched survey, easing concerns about the upcoming Budget’s effect on the economy. The S&P Global UK Services PMI Business Activity index rose to 52.3 in October, up from an earlier flash reading of 51.1 and well above the five-month low of 50.8 recorded in September. It was also higher than the 50 mark, which divides contraction from expansion.

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