Independent UK Economic Forecasting Since 1977

Established in 1977, the ITEM Club is one of the UK’s leading forecast groups. It is the only private forecasting group to use HM Treasury’s model of the UK economy and operates independently of political or economic bias.

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Why organizations trust us

Unparalleled expertise and independence in UK economic forecasting

Established 1977

Nearly five decades providing trusted insights to decision-makers across government and industry sectors.

HM Treasury Model

Only private forecaster with access to the UK government's official economic model for unmatched accuracy.

100% Independent

Completely free from political influence. Forecasts and reports driven purely by rigorous analysis on the economic data.

Recent Reports

Explore our comprehensive library of quarterly forecasts and in-depth thematic publications

July 2026

Summer forecast 2026: Middle East flare up could lead to a challenging H2

So far the UK economy has shown few signs of the conflict in the Middle East. But the ITEM Club expects the challenges to start to mount in the second half of 2026 as consumers' real incomes are squeezed. Growth is forecast to be 0.9% in 2026 and 0.7% in 2027.

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Will the UK benefit from the AI boom?

As we move into the second half of the year, we consider how the rise of AI may influence the UK economy.

Weakened regional labour markets as energy costs bite

The energy shock is feeding through to a broad-based labour market slowdown. Employment is expected to decline across all regions and most major cities in 2026 as firms respond to weaker demand and higher costs. The Middle East will hit the economy and leave it risking recession in the second half of 2026. Growth is expected to be 0.7% in 2026 and 0.9% in 2027.

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Spring 2026 forecast: Another supply shock hits

The Middle East will hit the economy and leave it risking recession in the second half of 2026. Growth is expected to be 0.7% in 2026 and 0.9% in 2027.

April 2026

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About Us: Meet Our Team

The ITEM Club brings together leading economists, forecasters, and advisers with deep expertise across macroeconomic analysis, policy evaluation, and economic modelling. Our team combines decades of experience from central banks, government departments, and financial institutions.

Chief Economic Adviser

Matt Swannell

Chief Economic Adviser to the ITEM Club

Matt brings over two decades of experience in economic forecasting and policy analysis. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, he held senior roles at the Bank of England, HM Treasury, and a leading global investment bank, where he advised on macroeconomic strategy and risk assessment.

15+ Years ExperienceEconomic forecasting & policy analysis
Government AdviserTrusted by corporate and government leaders

Economic Data Responses

Real-time analysis of key economic indicators

September 3 2026

UK services sentiment improves for now

The UK S&P Global services and composite PMIs both improved in August, but we do not expect this to hold as consumer spending and real household income will be constrained by rising inflation in H2.

September 3 2026

September 1 2026

UK Lending conditions remain modest

UK mortgage approvals remained modest in July as elevated interest rates continued to weigh on the housing market, while net mortgage lending softened on the month.

September 1 2026

UK manufacturing sentiment continues to cool as cost pressures build

The UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI declined very slightly in August. Manufacturing sentiment continued to cool, with rising cost pressures and uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East remaining key concerns.

September 1 2026

August 21 2026

UK PMI too upbeat on growth outlook

We wouldn’t read much into the pickup in the flash UK S&P Global PMI given the recent volatility in results. We expect GDP growth to cool in H2 2026 as real incomes are squeezed.

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UK services activity ticks higher in October amid resilient demand

UK services activity expanded in October at a stronger pace than initially estimated as demand strengthened, according to a closely watched survey, easing concerns about the upcoming Budget’s effect on the economy. The S&P Global UK Services PMI Business Activity index rose to 52.3 in October, up from an earlier flash reading of 51.1 and well above the five-month low of 50.8 recorded in September. It was also higher than the 50 mark, which divides contraction from expansion.

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