Established 1977
Nearly five decades providing trusted insights to decision-makers across government and industry sectors.
Why organizations trust us
Unparalleled expertise and independence in UK economic forecasting
HM Treasury Model
Only private forecaster with access to the UK government's official economic model for unmatched accuracy.
100% Independent
Completely free from political influence. Forecasts and reports driven purely by rigorous analysis on the economic data.
Recent Reports
Explore our comprehensive library of quarterly forecasts and in-depth thematic publications
About Us: Meet Our Team
The ITEM Club brings together leading economists, forecasters, and advisers with deep expertise across macroeconomic analysis, policy evaluation, and economic modelling. Our team combines decades of experience from central banks, government departments, and financial institutions.
Chief Economic Adviser
Matt Swannell
Chief Economic Adviser to the ITEM Club
Matt brings over two decades of experience in economic forecasting and policy analysis. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, he held senior roles at the Bank of England, HM Treasury, and a leading global investment bank, where he advised on macroeconomic strategy and risk assessment.
- 15+ Years ExperienceEconomic forecasting & policy analysis
- Government AdviserTrusted by corporate and government leaders
Economic Data Responses
Real-time analysis of key economic indicators
June 3 2026
PMI signals a late spring slowdown
May’s UK S&P Global composite PMI pointed to stalling activity, as households and businesses felt the effects of the Middle East conflict. We expect the economy to flirt with recession in H2.
June 3 2026
June 2 2026
June 2 2026
Mortgage approvals marched higher in April, despite costlier deals
UK mortgage approvals strengthened further in April. But this probably reflects Easter-related distortions, with higher borrowing costs likely to cause mortgage activity to weaken soon.
June 1 2026
UK manufacturing PMI strength won’t last
May’s solid UK S&P Global manufacturing reading is likely to prove the high point, in our view, and we expect the sector to slow as the economy feels the effects of the conflict in the Middle East.
June 1 2026
May 22 2026
May 22 2026
UK public finances softer than expected
April’s UK public finances data disappointed official projections and with the introduction of some cost-of-living measures, borrowing could drift further away from the OBR’s estimates for this year.
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