Established 1977
Nearly five decades providing trusted insights to decision-makers across government and industry sectors.
Why organizations trust us
Unparalleled expertise and independence in UK economic forecasting
HM Treasury Model
Only private forecaster with access to the UK government's official economic model for unmatched accuracy.
100% Independent
Completely free from political influence. Forecasts and reports driven purely by rigorous analysis on the economic data.
Recent Reports
Explore our comprehensive library of quarterly forecasts and in-depth thematic publications
About Us: Meet Our Team
The ITEM Club brings together leading economists, forecasters, and advisers with deep expertise across macroeconomic analysis, policy evaluation, and economic modelling. Our team combines decades of experience from central banks, government departments, and financial institutions.
Chief Economic Adviser
Matt Swannell
Chief Economic Adviser to the ITEM Club
Matt brings over two decades of experience in economic forecasting and policy analysis. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, he held senior roles at the Bank of England, HM Treasury, and a leading global investment bank, where he advised on macroeconomic strategy and risk assessment.
- 15+ Years ExperienceEconomic forecasting & policy analysis
- Government AdviserTrusted by corporate and government leaders
Economic Data Responses
Real-time analysis of key economic indicators
November 4 2026
UK services PMI picked up pace in October
The UK S&P Global services PMI picked up in October, confirming that momentum continues into Q4 2026. Some of the strength reflects the AI build-out, and we expect it to continue into 2027, offsetting some of the headwinds from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
November 4 2026
November 2 2026
November 2 2026
UK Manufacturing activity stays resilient
The UK S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose again in October as the economy continues to show resilience in the face of higher energy prices. However, respondents did note that costs and supply chain pressures from the conflict in the Middle East are building.
October 29 2026
Another fall in mortgage approvals
High interest rates continue to weigh on the UK mortgage market, with approvals falling again in September. We expect swap rates to remain elevated in the near-term, which will keep mortgage rates high. Net unsecured lending fell in September, but this was driven by higher repayments. Gross lending remained solid, and we think consumers will continue to rely on credit over the coming months as higher inflation squeezes their real incomes.
October 29 2026
October 29 2026
October 29 2026
BoE Preview: Hike a done deal, but where next
It looks a done deal that the Monetary Policy Committee will raise Bank Rate to 4% at its meeting next week. It's unlikely that the Committee will offer any commitment on the path of future rate hikes as it buys itself some insurance against the possibility of sticky inflation. While it’s unlikely that the prospect of a December hike will be taken off the table, it’s most likely that the Committee will wait until February to raise Bank Rate again.
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